Bitcoin price has risen 84% since January 2024 while Treasury yields climbed
Bitcoin has risen 84% since January 2024 despite climbing US Treasury yields. A recent CryptoSlate analysis reveals weak daily correlations between Bitcoin returns and yield changes.
On Oct. 7, Bitcoin was changing hands below $84,000 as US Treasury yields approached 5.3%, presenting investors with an alternative yield-generating option. Elevated yields can increase the returns investors look for to justify taking on speculative cryptocurrency risk.
Historically, however, the correlation is not so straightforward. CryptoSlate evaluated 2,435 paired daily movements dating back to January 2017 and uncovered weak linear relationships connecting Bitcoin returns, variations in nominal and real Treasury yields, and dollar-index returns. These daily patterns continued to show weak ties even after the launch of spot ETFs.
By Oct. 6, the US ten-year nominal par yield sat at 5.27%, dropping slightly from 5.31% the previous day. Around 14:25 UTC on Oct. 7, Bitcoin traded at approximately $83,086. The nominal yield recorded on Oct. 5 marked the peak of the daily data series going back to January 2017.
Even so, Bitcoin rallied 84.2% between January 10, 2024—the day prior to the debut of US spot Bitcoin ETF trading—and Oct. 5, 2026. Across that timeframe, the ten-year nominal yield advanced by 127 basis points alongside a 113-basis-point increase in the real yield. This highlights how a rising Bitcoin price and climbing yields can happen simultaneously, though it does not imply that ETFs caused the price surge.
The inflation-adjusted option has also strengthened. On Oct. 6, the Treasury’s ten-year real par yield reached 2.91%, easing down from 2.95% on the prior day. The Oct. 5 figure also represented the highest point in the daily dataset tracked since January 2017.
These figures illustrate the returns available from competing yield-bearing products. While they may complicate the case for speculative investments, they do not prove that higher yields triggered Bitcoin’s recent pullback. The current investment hurdle and the statistical relationship between Bitcoin returns and yield adjustments remain distinct issues.
What the post-ETF comparison shows
The complete daily dataset spans from Jan. 4, 2017, through Oct. 5, 2026. Meanwhile, the post-ETF timeframe comprises 682 matched daily movements spanning Jan. 11, 2024, to Oct. 5, 2026.
This latter period follows the SEC’s historic clearance of spot Bitcoin ETP shares on January 10, 2024, with BlackRock’s IBIT launching on Nasdaq on January 11, 2024. These milestones mark the boundaries of the analysis, which does not isolate the specific impact of ETFs.
The accompanying table details Pearson correlation coefficients. Figures close to zero point to minimal linear co-movement, whereas negative figures indicate that the metrics generally moved in opposite directions. Neither yield metric demonstrated a strong negative daily link with Bitcoin returns during the later timeframe.
| Bitcoin daily returns versus | Since January 2017 | Post-ETF trading |
|---|---|---|
| Ten-year nominal yield changes | -0.004 | +0.054 |
| Ten-year real yield changes | -0.047 | +0.042 |
| ICE DXY returns | -0.098 | -0.089 |
The study relies on Coinbase Bitcoin pricing data, nominal and real Treasury yields sourced from FRED, and DXY data provided by Yahoo Finance. The DXY represents the ICE currency index, differing from the Federal Reserve’s broad trade-weighted dollar index.
Data points were aligned by date, leaving out gaps instead of filling them in. Returns calculated between back-to-back common dates can encompass holidays or weekends, and because market closing schedules vary across sources, synchronized intraday data was not used.
Shifting to a monthly perspective alters the outlook. Looking at 116 full months between February 2017 and September 2026, the correlations registered -0.081 for nominal yield changes, -0.228 for real yield changes, and -0.164 for DXY returns.
For the 32 full months following the ETF rollout, spanning February 2024 through September 2026, those metrics came in at +0.207, +0.126, and +0.002, respectively. Both yield correlations shift into positive territory in the newer monthly data, while the dollar correlation trends near zero. Given the limited sample size of 32 months, these variations do not point to a permanent structural shift.
Monthly data points utilize the final shared observation date of each month, omitting the partial month of October. Variations across data frequencies restrict any sweeping generalizations derived from daily metrics—including suggestions that ETFs shielded Bitcoin from broader macroeconomic pressures. These correlation figures highlight co-movement rather than proving causation or forecasting future price action.
Previous pre-ETF research from S&P Global similarly noted that the correlation between crypto assets and interest rates fluctuated over time without proving monetary-policy causation. Due to differing methodologies and asset measures, its coefficients cannot be directly compared here.
Yields approaching 5.3% heighten competition for investment capital. Nominal yields, real yields, and the DXY all serve as helpful metrics when evaluating Bitcoin’s overall investment appeal.
Frequently Asked Questions
01Do higher Treasury yields always cause Bitcoin prices to fall?
No. Historical data shows that rising yields and a rising Bitcoin price can coexist, and daily correlations between Bitcoin returns and Treasury yield changes are generally weak.
02What is the time period covered by the post-ETF analysis?
The post-ETF analysis covers 682 matched daily changes from Jan. 11, 2024, through Oct. 5, 2026.
03Do the correlation figures prove causation?
No. These correlations describe co-movement and do not establish causation or predict future returns.
