Bitcoin enters its best season after a 43% surge, with $147,000 suddenly on the math

Bitcoin is wrapping up its strongest quarter since 2024, leaving gold and US equities far behind despite climbing bond yields.

According to data from Bitfinex and CoinGlass, the leading digital asset climbed roughly 43% throughout the third quarter. This positions the cryptocurrency for its second-best third-quarter performance since 2013 and its third-strongest quarterly gain since US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds launched in January 2024.

Following three consecutive quarters of declines, Bitcoin kicked off July near $58,600. It then gathered momentum through August and September as institutional interest revived and sellers who had spent much of 2026 at a loss were cleared out at progressively higher price levels.

Traditional equities struggled to keep up. StatMuse figures indicate that over the identical three-month stretch ending September 29, the Nasdaq Composite rose about 5%, the S&P 500 added roughly 4%, and gold increased by less than 2%.

Meanwhile, Ethereum stood out as a notable exception, outpacing Bitcoin as the wider crypto market recovery expanded beyond the primary digital asset.

Bitcoin accelerated its outperformance after August 19, even though a Treasury initiative aimed at boosting liquidity in long-term government debt failed to stop yields from climbing.

The department announced it would at least double the maximum limits for liquidity-support buybacks on longer maturities to $4 billion per transaction, with these expanded purchases kicking off on September 9.

Since that announcement, Bitcoin has climbed nearly 30%. However, during the quarter, the 10-year Treasury yield advanced about 81 basis points and long-term borrowing expenses hit multi-decade highs, increasing the hurdle for non-yielding assets.

Wall Street money takes over from leverage

As financial conditions tightened elsewhere, US spot Bitcoin ETFs delivered a fresh wave of capital.

These funds shifted from roughly $5 billion in net outflows year-to-date at the close of July to about $1 billion in net inflows by late September, marking a roughly $6 billion turnaround over two months.

This reversal reached a peak last week when the investment products attracted $2.39 billion, marking their highest weekly intake since October 2025. Every session posted positive figures, though daily demand cooled from $999 million on September 21 down to approximately $135 million by September 25.

Nexo analysts noted that Bitcoin enters the fourth quarter boasting healthier spot demand and an enhanced market structure. Even so, the outlook still relies on sustained ETF participation, the absorption of overhead supply, and inflation remaining low enough to avert further tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Concurrently, leveraged traders have been reducing their exposure.

Data from Bitfinex shows that aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest dropped from upwards of 700,000 BTC on September 21 to roughly 644,000, hitting its lowest mark since early January. The seven-day reduction of about 49,000 BTC was the steepest since October 2025, while CME open interest plummeted by 16,075 BTC on Monday alone, marking its third-largest single-day drop on record.

In addition, futures premiums have narrowed, and implied volatility continues to hover near a one-year low.

While this unwind reduces the risk of another liquidation-fueled cascade, it also eliminates the speculative buying that typically fuels aggressive rallies, thereby placing more pressure on investors buying Bitcoin outright.

Evidence of this market shift is emerging around current valuations. Bitfinex calculates that the quantity of Bitcoin sitting at a cost basis between $82,500 and $84,000 nearly tripled to 306,000 tokens over a three-day span, as buyers absorbed coins unloaded by profitable holders below the market alongside newer investors cutting losses above it.

A 1.39 million Bitcoin wall waits above $85,000

Despite Bitcoin’s improving framework, a significant concentration of sellers remains directly overhead.

Bitfinex estimates that investors hold roughly 1.39 million BTC purchased between $84,000 and $86,500. This cohort consists of long-term holders nearing breakeven and newer buyers whose investments went underwater following Bitcoin’s retreat from its September 21 peak close to $87,400.

This dynamic establishes potential selling pressure each time valuations push back into that territory.

CryptoQuant pointed out that Bitcoin reclaimed its 365-day moving average last week for the initial time since March 2023. Historically, upward moves past this metric have signaled transitions into bullish trends, whereas prolonged stays below it have aligned with weaker market cycles.

Bitcoin’s realized price—which reflects the average cost basis of coins currently in circulation—has advanced to approximately $77,000 and has held firm throughout the most recent recovery.

The core question is whether fresh demand can successfully digest the supply resting above current spot prices.

Bitfinex’s metric tracking ETF acquisitions relative to the roughly 450 daily newly mined Bitcoin dropped from 25.6 times issuance during the $999 million inflow day to 1.8 times by September 29. The platform calculates that this ratio must climb back toward five times issuance—representing roughly $190 million in daily ETF demand—to absorb the overhead supply more rapidly.

Pushing past $85,000 would return roughly 760,000 BTC to profitability, bringing Bitcoin’s supply-in-profit metric closer to the 75% threshold that Bitfinex links to stronger bull-market phases. This metric fell to 71.3% on September 29, down from 78.1% eight days prior.

Moving past that immediate barrier, Glassnode identifies another major supply cluster between $88,000 and $90,000, followed by a key level near $96,700.

Even so, options traders are betting on further upside. Nexo reported that Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio averaged 0.67 over the prior two weeks, with December 25 expiration $140,000 calls serving as the single largest individual position. Dealer positioning indicates that the $95,000 to $97,000 zone will present another major test if Bitcoin breaches the closer supply resistance.

Bitcoin’s best season collides with 5% yields

Seasonality offers bulls another supporting argument as the market moves into October.

Historically, the fourth quarter has generated Bitcoin’s strongest performance, delivering average gains of roughly 77% to 85% since 2013, depending on the dataset. BloFin Research calculates that if Bitcoin mirrors its historical fourth-quarter average gain of 77.07% from current levels, the price would reach approximately $147,000, whereas its median fourth-quarter return of 47.73% points to roughly $123,000.

However, these are purely mechanical projections, and successive Bitcoin cycles have consistently yielded progressively smaller percentage gains from their cycle lows.

Monetary policy poses a more immediate hurdle.

At the start of the week, markets priced in roughly a 65% chance of another quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Milder-than-anticipated inflation figures released Wednesday dragged those probabilities down to about 38%, underscoring how swiftly the rate outlook can fluctuate ahead of the central bank’s October 27-28 meeting. A subsequent rate decision is scheduled for December 8-9.

September 28 served as an early warning regarding Bitcoin’s sensitivity to broader positioning shifts. The Nasdaq-100, gold, and Bitcoin dropped simultaneously as investors trimmed risk across all asset classes—a trend Nexo analysts described as more indicative of widespread deleveraging than a traditional rotation into safe havens.

According to Bitfinex, $81,300 acts as a critical support level below the current recovery. Sustained trading under that mark, paired with renewed ETF outflows, could expose the realized-price region around $77,000.

Conversely, stronger ETF interest and a decisive break above $86,500 would place Bitcoin near its yearly open of $87,700 before challenging the heavier supply cluster around $90,000.

The October 2 US payrolls report will provide traders with fresh economic insight ahead of the upcoming inflation report and the Fed’s October meeting, just as Bitcoin steps into its historically strongest quarter with Treasury yields remaining above 5%.

?Frequently Asked Questions

01Why is the fourth quarter historically strong for Bitcoin?

Historically, the fourth quarter has produced Bitcoin’s strongest returns, with average gains ranging from 77% to 85% since 2013, driven by shifting seasonal market dynamics and institutional rebalancing.

02What role are US spot Bitcoin ETFs playing in the current market?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have provided a major source of fresh capital, shifting from significant net outflows in July to billions in inflows by late September, thereby absorbing overhead supply and supporting higher valuations.

03How do rising Treasury yields affect Bitcoin?

Rising Treasury yields and multi-decade high borrowing costs raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, creating a tougher macroeconomic hurdle for the cryptocurrency.

04What is Bitcoin’s key overhead resistance level?

Analysts estimate a heavy concentration of roughly 1.39 million BTC held between $84,000 and $86,500, creating a significant wall of potential sellers that must be absorbed by new demand.

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