Bitcoin’s $85,000 sell wall is gone and traders are now betting on $100,000

Bitcoin’s upward movement is drawing near a $90,000 test as a rare accumulation pattern makes a comeback and sell-side liquidity becomes thinner.

On Oct. 2, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $87,000 after buyers pushed through a sell wall near $85,000 that had previously blocked multiple attempts to surge.

Glassnote reported that some of those orders were executed while the rest were pulled back, leaving a smaller amount of asks close to $87,000 and reduced visible liquidity just above that point.

Concurrently, the bands on CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Accumulation Trend metric have started to narrow, bringing back a configuration observed ahead of two sharp rallies in 2025.

This setup introduces another bullish indicator to a market that has already won back several essential cost-basis levels, though the limited number of prior instances means the pattern is far from definitive.

Past contractions offer a bullish, but limited, precedent

According to CryptoQuant, the ongoing contraction shares similarities with two instances from 2025 that led to substantial gains, providing traders with a bullish comparison as Bitcoin moves into October.

The Accumulation Trend tracks the buying and selling habits of various Bitcoin holder groups, giving insight into whether supply is being absorbed or distributed. Times when the chart’s bands tighten significantly have historically lined up with shifts in market momentum.

One contraction took place between April 17 and April 20, 2025, when Bitcoin traded around $84,000 before climbing toward $109,000. Another emerged between March 5 and March 8 prior to a separate rally.

Those occurrences are too scarce to make the contraction a dependable forecasting tool. Nevertheless, they make this latest development more notable since Bitcoin’s wider market health has strengthened concurrently.

Bitwise noted this week that Bitcoin has recaptured key cost-basis thresholds it monitors to spot shifts toward risk-on behavior. These include the short-term holder cost basis near $73,000, a true market mean around $77,000, and the estimated average cost basis for spot exchange-traded fund investors near $83,000.

Bitcoin has also pushed clearly through Bitwise’s $85,000 short-term holder realized-price band, steering the market into a section of the distribution where profits have historically proved tougher to maintain.

Underwater Bitcoin holders crowd the path toward $100,000

The removal of the $85,000 sell wall sends Bitcoin directly toward another source of potential supply: investors nearing breakeven after months spent in losses.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost calculates that BTC investors who purchased their coins 18 months to two years ago hold an average cost basis close to $88,350. The six-to-12-month group sits near $89,200 and has stayed underwater overall for nearly a year.

Some investors bought above these averages while others purchased below them, but as the market gets closer to these cohorts’ cost bases, more participants face a new choice after months of losses.

Certain holders may use the rebound to exit near breakeven, whereas others might hold onto their assets or buy more to lower their average purchase price. The degree to which buyers absorb this returning supply will help dictate whether the rally can push past $90,000.

Bitwise’s valuation bands introduce another barrier in roughly the same zone.

The firm places the next short-term holder reference level around $90,000 (representing 1.5 standard deviations above the realized price), followed by the two-standard-deviation level near $95,000. Bitcoin has traded above those marks on only about 3.8% and 1.7% of days, respectively, throughout Bitwise’s historical data.

A separate Fibonacci system used by the asset manager flags levels around $92,000 and $100,000, adding to the dense cluster of technical and on-chain reference points across the region. Bitwise characterized the $90,000-to-$100,000 zone as the next area where several structural markers intersect.

Options traders are positioning themselves for this exact corridor. Deribit figures show approximately $2.1 billion of Bitcoin call exposure at the $90,000 strike, $2.4 billion at $95,000, and $1.8 billion at $100,000.

This heavy concentration of calls signifies strong demand for upside exposure as Bitcoin tracks closer to those strike prices.

While their impact on the spot market will hinge on expiration dates and dealer hedging, the positioning proves that traders have backed a push into the exact $90,000-to-$100,000 range highlighted by on-chain valuation metrics.

Leverage rebuilds as macro pressure eases

Bitcoin approaches this supply zone with speculative exposure heading upward once more, supported by a Friday US employment report that gave risk assets a fresh macro lift.

Bitcoin’s open interest dropped to roughly $52 billion as September wrapped up, but derivatives activity has begun to bounce back, rising to about $56.2 billion during the first two days of October, according to CoinGlass figures.

This roughly $4.2 billion jump occurred alongside Bitcoin climbing from about $83,500 to briefly surpass $87,000.

This recovery implies that traders are re-establishing exposure after cutting back positions late in September. With open interest climbing alongside Bitcoin’s price, fresh positions have accompanied the advance, though the metric by itself does not confirm whether traders are leaning long or short.

Bitcoin open interest finished September near a one-year low, leaving room for speculative activity to rebuild without immediately hitting past extremes. However, rising funding makes long positions costlier to maintain and leaves them more vulnerable if the rally suffers a reversal.

The macroeconomic climate grew more supportive on Friday after US employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, falling well short of the 90,000 economists had anticipated. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%, while August payroll gains were revised downward.

The report lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement another rate hike at its October meeting, dragging Treasury yields down and boosting US equities. Futures markets priced the odds of an October increase below 20% in the wake of the data.

This eliminates an immediate threat to Bitcoin’s advance, shifting focus to the tougher test remaining within the crypto market itself.

A sustained break past $90,000 would push Bitcoin into territory that Bitwise already labels historically stretched compared to recent investor cost bases. Hitting $95,000 would move the asset into a band surpassed on fewer than 2% of days in the firm’s sample, requiring buyers to absorb both returning holder supply and increasingly costly leveraged positions.

Should they fail, attention will swing back toward $83,000, where Bitwise places the average ETF investor cost basis as the primary downside floor that bulls must protect.

?Frequently Asked Questions

01What caused Bitcoin to break through the $85,000 sell wall?

Buyers absorbed and cleared out a significant portion of the sell orders concentrated around $85,000, while the remaining orders were withdrawn. This thinned out sell-side liquidity and paved the way for Bitcoin to test higher price points.

02What do on-chain indicators say about the $90,000 to $100,000 range?

On-chain valuation bands from firms like Bitwise and CryptoQuant show that the $90,000 to $100,000 range features a high concentration of structural resistance, Fibonacci levels, and cost bases for long-term holders and investors who purchased months ago.

03How are options traders positioning themselves right now?

Data from Deribit indicates heavy call option exposure—approximately $2.1 billion at the $90,000 strike, $2.4 billion at $95,000, and $1.8 billion at $100,000—showing that traders are betting heavily on a continued upward move.